Canada's TRV Refusal Rates in Numbers: What Has Happened Since 2024?

Lately, a lot of people have had the same feeling:

Are Canadian visitor and family-visit visas getting harder?

If you only look at individual cases, it's easy to get swept up by emotion. But IRCC's official data from recent years tells a fairly clear story:

Since 2024, TRV screening in Canada has indeed become noticeably stricter. Refusal rates stayed high through 2025, with some signs of improvement in early 2026.

1. First, the numbers: 2024 was the clear turning point

According to IRCC's published data:

Period	TRV picture
Full-year 2023	Refusal rate ~39%
Full-year 2024	Refusal rate ~54%
Full-year 2025	Refusal rate ~51%
2026 through end of February	Approval rate ~54%

The sharpest change happened in 2024.

In 2023, the global TRV refusal rate was about 39%. By 2024, it had jumped to 54%. In other words, in 2024, refused TRV applications worldwide outnumbered approved ones for the first time.

2025 eased slightly, but the refusal rate still sat at around 51% — a sign that screening remained very strict.

Entering 2026, the approval rate recovered to about 54%. That's a positive signal, but since it only covers early-year data, it can't simply be read as "Canadian visitor visas have been broadly relaxed."

2. Why is the refusal rate so high?

IRCC's published materials repeatedly stress one core judgment:

The officer must believe the applicant will leave Canada at the end of their authorized stay.

So the core of a TRV application isn't "how much money you have" — it's whether you can clearly explain:

Why you're going to Canada, why now, how long you'll stay, where the money comes from, what ties you to home, and why you will definitely return.

Many applicants focus on property, savings, cars, and the inviter's income. Those matter, of course, but they're only part of the evidence.

A person can own a home and have savings, yet if they plan to stay in Canada for months without being able to explain their job, family, and life arrangements back home, the officer may still doubt the purpose of the temporary visit.

Conversely, someone with modest assets but a clear purpose of visit, a reasonable timeline, stable funding, and clear work and family ties at home can actually present a more credible overall picture.

3. What changed in the review logic since 2024?

In recent years, Canada has tightened management of its entire temporary resident system.

The backdrop includes rapid growth in the temporary resident population, pressure on housing and public services, overstays, asylum claims, and questions about the integrity of the immigration system.

So visitor visas haven't been "shut off" — rather:

Screening has become stricter about who is a genuine temporary visitor.

That's why applications that would once have sailed through with "roughly good enough" materials now carry noticeably higher risk.

4. What is the refusal rate for mainland Chinese applicants?

This is the question most people care about.

But IRCC's regular published data currently doesn't offer a complete statistical table of:

"Approval/refusal rates for ordinary mainland Chinese TRV applicants in 2024, 2025, and 2026."

So when you see figures online like "Chinese applicants have a 38% refusal rate" or "a 62% approval rate," treat them with great caution.

Unless the data comes from IRCC statistics using the same methodology, or from ATIP-sourced materials, it shouldn't be taken as official data.

What we can say for certain is:

China remains one of Canada's major TRV source countries, and since 2024, overall TRV screening in Canada has become markedly stricter.

5. Is it still a good time to apply for a TRV?

The answer is:

Yes, you can apply — but it's not the time to "try your luck."

A 51% global refusal rate doesn't mean every applicant has a 51% chance of refusal.

Macro data only describes a strict overall environment; it can't substitute for case-by-case judgment.

What actually matters is whether your own application carries these risks:

• A vague purpose of visit;

• A stay that's too long or doesn't match your employment situation;

• Unclear sources of funds;

• Weak ties to your home country;

• Strong Canadian family ties but insufficient ties at home;

• A previous refusal, with no substantive improvement addressing the last refusal reason.

Especially when reapplying after a refusal, the worst approach is resubmitting the same materials.

The real question to resolve is:

Why didn't the officer believe you last time? What new facts and evidence this time can change that judgment?

6. Preparing a TRV: four words to remember

Genuine, reasonable, consistent, verifiable.

Genuine: your job, income, funds, marital status, and travel history must be real.

Reasonable: the purpose of visit, length of stay, and costs should fit your personal circumstances.

Consistent: the application forms, bank statements, employment letters, invitation letter, and travel plan must not contradict each other.

Verifiable: key facts should be backed by objective supporting materials wherever possible, not just stated in a letter of explanation.

In the end, a good TRV application isn't about "the more documents the better" — it's about letting the officer clearly see:

Who I am, why I'm going to Canada, why now, where the money comes from, and why I will leave Canada when the visit ends.

Closing

The data shows that since 2024, Canadian TRV screening has indeed tightened significantly: refusal rates went from ~39% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, and were still ~51% in 2025.

The early-2026 uptick in approval rates is a positive signal worth watching — but not yet enough to say policy has fully turned.

So instead of asking over and over:

"Are Canadian visitor visas easy to get right now?"

Ask yourself first:

"If I were the officer, after reading this file, would I believe this is a genuine, reasonable visit that will end on time?"

That is the question TRV applications really need to answer today.

Data source: Published statistics from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and parliamentary committee materials.

Disclaimer: This article is a general policy and data analysis only, and does not constitute immigration or legal advice for any specific case.